Napa 2050: the last vintage
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It was an unusually mild spring day in the UK. Sitting in our Pickering Cellar, tucked away under Pickering Place, were talented producers, experienced journalists and wine industry experts, all confronted with the possibility that climate change could be an existential challenge for Napa valley. Yet it quickly became clear that the pioneering spirit that built Napa remains undimmed.
This seminar – part of our focus on West Coast wines – was designed to showcase what vintners are doing to manage climate change in Napa. What was most apparent was the blend of approaches on display. On one side stood Kia Belnia, of NeoTempo. He spoke passionately about AI-driven solutions and technological innovations to manage the climate chaos that is hitting the valley. On the other side, Matt Taylor from Ink Grade, discussed a much more pared-back approach to viticulture, returning to the most traditional ways of farming the land, and using biodynamics to build resilience in the vineyard.
A pioneering spirit
Kia, co-founder and CEO of NeoTempo, is a former computer science student at UC Davis. He’s spent over a decade engaged in viticulture alongside his wife, Tracy. Building up NeoTempo, they’ve been clear from the start: vineyards are this industry’s Achilles heel. Winemakers must not only focus on climate solutions but also address inefficiencies in viticulture – such as the difficulty of standardising approaches given the multitude of varietals, clones, and rootstocks.
From Kia’s point of view, technology is proving to be a valuable ally in adapting viticulture to climate change. His Scout AI, a spin-off from NeoTempo, takes 20 photos per plant and uses AI analysis to diagnose concerns such as water stress, Leafroll and Red Blotch virus, all key threats to vineyard longevity. This tool generates precise metrics on fruit cluster count, leaf density, and canopy volume. For Kia’s vineyards, Scout AI will analyse 150,000 photos per vintage, helping him focus on underperforming vines that might otherwise go unnoticed.
However, this approach does not need to lead to uniformity or a lack of human input. Rather, it provides winemakers with the tools to manage vineyards at a plant level, minimising chemical use, and ensuring adaptability rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all model.
This was a point that clearly hit home with attendees, with journalists questioning where the line between precision viticulture and precision engineering lies? Ultimately, they asked, how much technological intervention is too much? The answer, it seems, is that AI must serve as an enabler of human expertise, rather than a replacement for winemaking artistry.
Biodynamics and Napa’s future
Matt Taylor offered a compelling counterpoint with his biodynamic approach at Ink Grade. This estate spans an impressive 325 hectares, with 25 hectares under vine across Howell Mountain. As the largest certified biodynamic area in Napa, his success challenges assumptions about scaling sustainable practices. Drawing from past experiences at Domaine Dujac, he emphasised the necessity of Napa returning to its roots – prioritising balance (something these wines have traditionally had in abundance) and endurance over extraction and power.
Of course , o ne solution to viticultural challenges posed by climate change is choosing grape varieties which are more suited to the climate. Yet Cabernet Sauvignon remains the economic cornerstone of Napa. Matt was clear that tradition dictates demand, making it difficult for winemakers to shift away from Cabernet completely. However, even here there is scope for adaptation. NeoTempo’s approach involves using Clone 338 of Cabernet, a late-ripening variant that preserves freshness, allowing greater flexibility in harvest decisions.
Sustainability beyond the vineyard
Beyond vineyard management, there is more work to be done on climate chaos. Sustainability concerns have led NeoTempo to redesign their packaging, creating hexagon-shaped lightweight bottles that allow 80 cases per pallet versus the standard 50, significantly reducing shipping costs and environmental impact; and minimising bottle damage in transit. This is just one aspect of the shipping journey though, and with many distributors still lacking a net-zero delivery option, there is more work to be done here.
Despite the work ahead, the afternoon closed with a message of cautious optimism. Whilst Kia noted that hope alone isn't a strategy, it’s clear there is plenty of proactivity in responding to the threats the valley faces.
The experience of our producers in this beautiful part of the world demonstrates that with appropriate adaptation strategies, quality wines will still be produced even in challenging vintages, suggesting that Napa 2050 need not necessarily be "the last vintage" after all.
